Signs of improved demand stainless steel futures should not be overly pessimistic

According to SMM research, in June 2022, the national stainless steel production totaled about 2.6753 million tons, compared with the total production in May decreased by about 177,900 tons, a sequential decrease of about 6.08%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.55%. Among them, the production of 200 series stainless steel in June was 797,000 tons, an increase of 6.32%; 300 series stainless steel production of about 1.3539 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.79%; Production of 400 series was about 502,400 tons, down 0.79% year on year.

On July 7, 2022, the total inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi market was 449,700 tons, down 45,728 tons or 9.23%. Within the week, the arrival of steel mills is not obvious, only guangxi steel mill and south China steel mill small increment, large plant resources due to the maintenance of the steel production, the arrival of more than a reduction, showing a whole series of reduction. 300 series steel products are less, the current cold rolling spot merchant inventory is low, the price is firm, hot rolling there is some profit space.

Yinchuan Steel e-commerce: This week's total urban inventory was 11,917,300 tons, down 393,800 tons (-3.20%) from last week, including 142 warehouses in 39 cities. This week's total construction steel inventory is 6,939,500 tons, 317,500 tons (-4.38%) less than last week, including 30 cities, a total of 85 warehouses; The total hot roll inventory this week was 3.1345 million tons, 79,300 tons (-2.47%) less than last week, covering 17 cities and 48 warehouses in total.

Institutional point of view

Huatai Futures:

304 stainless steel short-term supply and demand is weak, steel losses lead to a decline in production, and the price continues to fall in the consumption is weak, the overall supply and demand performance is poor, but the social inventory has been falling in the continuous price for six weeks, has dropped to the middle level. And under the current price, stainless steel factory and domestic nickel iron factory are almost in a loss state, the mine end is also difficult to continue to give room for profit, short-term price has fallen to the industry cost support level, below will gradually get the industry supply and demand support, should not be too pessimistic. However, short-term macro sentiment is still pessimistic, until the peripheral sentiment improves, prices may remain weak volatility.

Haitong Futures:

Recent stainless steel inventories have been falling, but last week they picked up again. Production affected by losses in June domestic 300 series of stainless steel production fell sharply compared to the same period last year, superimposition of expectations of demand recovery, together to support the price. At present, stainless steel production falls back, there are signs of improvement in demand, the price does not rule out the possibility of a rebound shock.